Jetcraft has released its first ever business aviation market forecast which reveals that the North American region will continue to dominate the market in terms of total aircraft unit deliveries, representing 4,728 units (54%) of the 8,755 aircraft to be delivered through 2024. The EMEA region will contribute 20% to the total aircraft deliveries market, representing 1,751 units combined for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
According to the 10 Year Market Outlook report, business aviation market revenues will reach US$271.1bn and Bombardier will secure the highest market share in unit delivered (24.3%) and revenues (31.6%). However, Jetcraft’s forecast indicators cite aircraft unit deliveries worldwide will plateau at 7.5% CAGR and there will be a slight industry downturn around 2022, with the business aviation sector remaining flat overall for the period of 2015-2024.
The 10 Year Market Outlook report delivers an agnostic, non-manufacturer-based perspective on the business aviation sector, projecting not only aircraft deliveries and revenue, but also avionics and engine OEM sales, depicting a complete picture of the whole business aviation industry.
“We wanted to provide an objective, comprehensive forecast of the sector, given our industry’s lack of predictability since 2008, from a viewpoint that no other party could offer,” said Jetcraft’s chairman Jahid Fazal-Karim. “Our position in the transaction process – sitting between buyers and brokers on one side, and OEMs on the other – gives us a unique perspective on one of the most watched sectors globally.”
“We noticed some definitive behavior in the current business cycle,” said Chad Anderson, president of Jetcraft. “Customers are tending to shy away more from emotional purchases. Companies are allocating some cash reserves to buy back shares (and as a consequence away from aircraft purchases).”
Regarding aircraft production during the forecast period, Anderson added, “OEMs are developing more wide body models (at the expense of new narrow body models), crowding the higher segment with multiple offerings.”
Pratt & Whitney Canada’s (PWC) engines are slated to power every single segment in business aviation – from very light to ultra-long-range aircraft – during the forecast period. This increase in the Canadian OEM’s business will narrow the gap between PWC and market leader Rolls-Royce to around US$3bn in revenues.
For the avionics OEMs, Honeywell, Rockwell Collins and Garmin will collectively achieve US$7bn in revenues during the forecast period, with Honeywell maintaining the top sales position.
October 22, 2015
