The latest Business Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast from Aviation Week Network has revealed that the world’s western produced in-service business fleets will grown by 2.3% annually between 2016 and 2025, rising from 31,000 aircraft to almost 38,000 over the period.
The report also forecasts that the 10-year demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) in the business aviation market will be US$121.8bn.
“The 2016 forecast expectations show that the North American market will dominate the world sales and MRO demand for years to come; and will also have a vibrant fleet replacement cycle with nearly 3,400 aircraft retirements and over 8,000 aircraft deliveries,” said Brian Kough, director of forecasts and analysis with Aviation Week Intelligence Network.
The report also showed that ultra-long range category jets will grow fleet share the fastest along with super mid-size category aircraft growing nearly as fast, ending the year 2025 with nearly 3,200 aircraft. Very-light jets will grow its category share rapidly to over 1,500 aircraft over the next 10 years.
China, with a small base fleet, is predicted to grow the fastest fleet at 9% and MRO requirements despite economic and political pressures, while the largest market, North America, will grow at 2.3% rate.
North America’s in-service fleet share will remain constant during the forecast period at 63.5% while Western Europe will increase its share to 12.5% of the world’s fleet. Latin America and Africa will lose fleet share, with Eastern Europe and China gaining fleet share.
The report suggested that the top five aircraft deliveries are expected to be King Air 300/350, Pilatus PC-12, Gulfstream G650, Challenger 300/350 and Phenom 300 between 2016-2025.
September 30, 2015